The effects of climate change have become an ominous presence in our lives, and the dramatic media monikers that accompany them—bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, thundersnow, black swan events, heat domes, polar vortexes—sound almost biblical. The hyperbole may be great for SEO and headlines, but the sheer scope and frequent use of this new lexicon also indicate meteorologists now accept outsize events as our “new normal.” To wit, AccuWeather recently anointed this month “Supercharged September,” and it seems to have caught on.
Supercharged September refers to the onslaught of storms and hurricanes that are expected in early autumn to supplant the dry, dusty air—much of it from the Sahara Desert—that has kept Atlantic waters calm. This sets up the Atlantic for hurricanes, which come to life when warm ocean water evaporates into cooler air above, and the earth’s rotation spins the resulting storm clouds (and heat) faster and faster as it expands.
While the name may be intriguing, for many living in at-risk areas, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this should be a reminder that it’s storm-preparation season. Those living in danger zones should make a habit of checking in with the National Hurricane Center’s frequently updated storm tracker.
“While the extreme events we face are hard to predict with precision, we do know we will see more of them,” Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, the director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School, said. “There are many steps that people can take to prepare themselves and their communities to help lessen the impacts and help facilitate recovery. This starts with personal planning and preparedness, but things like fostering social bonds and civic engagement are all important factors in building ‘whole of community’ resilience.”
Historically, hurricane season runs from early June through late November (although AccuWeather suggested it could bulldoze its way into December), usually peaking around September 10. But this year has been unusual, with the notable exception of summer’s Hurricane Beryl—a record-setter as the earliest Category 5 storm to hit the Atlantic, spawning more than 65 tornados across the United States. The last notable event took place in mid-August with the arrival of Hurricane Ernesto, which started as a tropical storm. Instead of indicating that we have avoided disaster, this curious silence may underscore the unpredictable nature of climate change—because we are by no means in the clear.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that this summer delivered, globally, the hottest July on record, which also warmed sea temperatures. To that end, the NOAA revised its forecast to account for heightened sea-level temperatures as well as the anticipation of a La Niña cooling weather pattern in the Pacific that typically leads to more hurricanes in the Atlantic.
This season, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated “the number of expected named storms to 17-24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 8-13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 4-7 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).” These predictions are higher than the existing averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, the agency reported.
This makes preparation paramount. Before any weather event arrives, it is critical to develop an evacuation plan (including the how, when, and where you and your loved ones can get to safe ground), create a disaster kit (such as this detailed checklist, courtesy of FEMA), secure an insurance policy and prepare your home for a potential hurricane.
With that said, NOAA is attempting to mitigate some of nature’s sneak attacks through a coastal flood exposure map of the U.S. as well as a storm surge risk map (by home location and category of storm), to determine which homes are most impacted by inclement weather. Alternately, FEMA also offers a flood risk level map (searchable by zip code) which can be cross-referenced with a chart detailing what each flood zone means.
For those who’ve determined they are living in a more vulnerable location or a structure with weaknesses, it is critical to identify the nearest flood evacuation zone, for a safe haven should a dwelling become compromised. Mobile homes and basement dwellings, for instance, are particularly susceptible to flooding and surges.
As storm and hurricane season continues to become less predictable—and grows more ferocious—staying safe should always be the goal. As we’ve found out the hard way, nature is a force majeure.
