The last four years have been challenging for Daniel Danés and his family’s 100-year-old olive groves in Jaén, Spain. Between prolonged droughts, extreme heat and unpredictable rainfall, Danés has watched prices fluctuate dramatically as weather whiplash impacts olive yields.
“Olive oil depends a lot on weather,” said Danés, who is the founder of Titin, a U.S.-based company that imports and sells high-quality Spanish olive oil to restaurants and home chefs. “If it doesn’t rain in Spain, you have a problem with olive oil.”
Spain is the top producer and exporter of olive oil in the world, according to the International Olive Council, but climate change is intensifying droughts and extreme heatwaves while altering precipitation patterns in the region—developments that are having a profound impact on olive quality, quantity and price, according to recent research published in the journal Sustainability Science.
A severe drought in 2022 and 2023 reduced olive yields by at least 10 percent, according to data from the Universidad de Alcalá. As a result, the cost of top-shelf Spanish olive oil rose to nearly three times the normal price, according to Danés, due to limited supply.
“For farmers without water systems, their groves didn’t produce olives,” added Danés, who survived the drought because his family’s farm had sufficient irrigation infrastructure to allow the trees to bear fruit—though that wasn’t the case for everyone.
By January 2024, the price of olive oil had climbed 50 percent from the previous year, according to Eurostat. Conditions grew so dire by spring 2024 that olive oil became the most stolen product in Spain, with media outlets reporting that organized crime organizations were reselling it on the black market and grocery stores were padlocking bottles to deter thieves.
Olive trees are known for being highly drought-tolerant and can thrive in the hot, dry Mediterranean climate. Although they can survive with minimal precipitation, the trees need some moisture to produce robust olives for high-quality oil. Larger farms that can afford irrigation systems or climate-smart technology can mitigate certain weather extremes, though not all of them.
By spring 2024, olive oil became the most stolen product in Spain, with [reports] that organized crime organizations were reselling it on the black market and grocery stores were padlocking bottles to deter thieves.
“Last year we had two problems,” Danés explained. Extreme heat stunted the development of olives and delayed the harvest season by several weeks. By the time the olives were ready for harvest in early November 2025, a major storm called Claudia brought intense rainfall and wind that caused many olives to fall to the ground before they could be gathered.
“When olives touch the ground and aren’t picked up immediately, the acidity levels increase and they can’t be used for extra virgin olive oil,” Danés said. “It was impossible to produce extra virgin olive oil after the rain, so the price went up.”
Danés estimates that the heavy rainfall wasted roughly 80 percent of the Spanish olive crop, as the fallen fruit had to be heavily refined with chemicals—producing an inferior product to extra virgin olive oil, which is considered the highest-quality, healthiest and most flavorful variety. “Prices increased €0.90 ($1.04) per liter for high-quality olive oil because of the rain this past November,” he said.
And the problem is hardly confined to kitchen staples. “The challenge right now, with a more rapidly changing climate, is that it puts pressure on our food systems,” said Michael Puma, professor at the Columbia Climate School, where he leads the Center for Climate Systems Research. “One of our main tasks is to understand how these systems can be made more resilient.”
While individual price increases may not be significant for wealthy or middle-income households, it begins to add up as other food staples also grow more expensive. “Sandwiches are like $15 and it’s insane,” said Puma. “I don’t think people have connected the dots on what’s actually going on.”
The rising cost of products like olive oil cannot be attributed to climate change alone. Political conflict and trade policy are also driving prices higher, he said. But beyond price, Puma believes it is important to protect and adapt staple crops to climate change because of their nutritional value: “Olive oil is a healthier commodity compared to other items, so that does raise its importance as we’re trying to have healthier and more resilient food systems.”
Danés started his business in honor of his great-grandmother. His family is committed to producing the best Spanish olive oil, while making it affordable and accessible to a U.S. audience. “Everyone in Spain cooks with extra virgin olive oil because it’s the best tasting and the best for you,” he says, “That’s why we get to live to be 80 and 90 years old.”
