In March 2026, Hawaii was battered by the most severe flooding it had seen since 2004. The intense storms were driven by a series of “Kona lows”—winter storm systems that draw warm, moisture-laden air across the archipelago—and the damage has been historic. While Oahu saw devastating flooding, parts of Big Island, Kauai, Maui, Molokai and Lanai were also impacted.
What makes this crisis distinct is not just its scale but its compounding nature. These catastrophes are hitting a state already strained by chronic economic vulnerability and a climate growing more volatile by the year. The World Bank Group’s “5 I’s Approach to Resilience”— Infrastructure, Income, Information, Insurance and Intervention—offers a useful lens. Measured against each dimension, Hawaii is falling short, not because its people lack resilience, but because the systems around them have been allowed to erode.
Infrastructure: An Underlying Vulnerability
Beginning on March 10, “rain bombs” inundated Hawaii, washing out highways and overwhelming water systems across every county, causing heavy amounts of wastewater to leech into the Pacific Ocean. The storms were unusually severe and exposed infrastructure vulnerabilities that have been building for decades. On March 19, the 120-year-old Wahiawa Dam was pushed dangerously close to its capacity limit, with officials warning of imminent failure. In Waikiki, overwhelmed stormwater systems leached brown water into the ocean. Floodwaters destroyed farmlands on Oahu’s west side and cut off major roads. As of March 24, infrastructure repair costs were estimated at over $1 billion, with approximately 5,500 people under evacuation orders.
Experts note that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in Hawaii have increased in a warming climate. These are not one-off disasters; they’re a preview of what may be coming. And the state’s ability to prepare for and respond to them is being undermined by deeper structural problems.
Income: A State Already Stretched
Hawaii’s economy looks strong on paper, but the reality is more precarious. In a recent University of Hawaii report, when economic performance was adjusted for the local cost of living, Hawaii’s economy more closely resembled that of lower-income states. The state’s heavy dependence on tourism, which had already projected a decline of at least $600 million in real visitor spending before the flooding, leaves little cushion when disasters strike. Recovery funding becomes even more critical when the economic foundation is this fragile.
Insurance markets are responding to this new reality by raising premiums to levels many residents and businesses cannot afford. Companies justify the increases by noting that past data sets are “no longer reliable for forecasting future losses.” Without accurate, locally relevant climate data, the state cannot even price its own risk, let alone plan for it.
Floodwaters pool in neighborhoods and on farmland, while a plume of sediment spreads into the coastal ocean (left) on March 14, 2026, after the first of two kona lows dropped copious rain on O’ahu, Hawaii. The same location is pictured free of floodwater (right) on January 25, 2026. Both images were acquired with the OLI on Landsat 9. Credit: NASA
Information and Insurance: The Data Gap
Hawaii is frequently excluded from national research and data collection efforts, forcing the state to fund much of its own critical infrastructure for understanding climate risk, public health and economic trends. Federal grants-in-aid are a major revenue source, but when that funding disappears, state departments often lose access to vital metrics, from live births to performance indicators tied to grant requirements. The stakes are high: a 1% undercount in the U.S. Census could cost Hawaii over $45 million a year in federal funding, impacting data-driven programs across the board.
This dependency creates cascading vulnerabilities. Climate research projects studying sea-level rise rely on federal grants from agencies like the Office of Naval Research. When funding gaps emerge, the state must decide whether to pick up the tab to keep critical monitoring alive. The University of Hawaii has considered self-funding a new climate center to ensure continuity when federal money is unavailable. Nonprofits and local collaborations, such as the Hawaii Data Collaborative, have stepped in to fill gaps when state or federal funding falls short.
Data sets like the University of Hawaii’s Hawaii Mesonet and Hawaii Climate Data Portal are essential for creating the localized projections needed to address insurance pricing, guide infrastructure investments, and ensure emergency funding is deployed effectively. Without them, Hawaii is flying blind.
Intervention: Federal Uncertainty and Limits of Intervention
The broader uncertainty around federal support compounds these challenges. The current organizational restructuring of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is supposed to act as an insurer of last resort, has added questions about disaster recovery, with routine operations and contract renewals stalled even as the agency claims “immediate response” is unaffected. Governor Josh Green’s request for a major disaster declaration was the only way to unlock the Disaster Relief Fund. Meanwhile, agencies like the U.S. Geological Survey have had to wind down Climate Adaptation Science Centers, the very research needed to understand why these Kona Lows are becoming more catastrophic.
These are indicators of a broader problem: states that depend on federal infrastructure for disaster response, climate research, and basic data collection are increasingly being left to fend for themselves. This pattern is visible nationwide—from wildfires to flooding in Texas to the tornadoes that ravaged parts of the central U.S. in March. Policy stability is not a luxury; it’s essential to managing climate risk.
Recovery on Hawaii’s Own Terms: The Virtue of Kuleana
The pressure Hawaii faces to “bounce back quickly” is invariably framed around tourism recovery. But the people of Hawaii, Native Hawaiians and longtime residents who have tended this land for generations, deserve the space and resources to heal on their own terms, not on a timeline set by visitor economy metrics. Right now, locals need housing, transportation, food and safety. Those needs must come before any conversation about reopening to tourists.
Locals have already mobilized, organizing beach cleanups and creating supply networks for those who have sustained losses. Hollywood star Jason Momoa, an ambassador for Sustainable Coastlines Hawaii, was recently seen cleaning up Oahu’s west side with the Ho’oma’a Foundation, spotlighting the importance of collective action. This embodies “kuleana”— responsibility for the land—a foundational concept signifying sacred obligation that connects Native Hawaiians to their ancestors and environment.
But community resilience cannot substitute for systemic support. Hawaii needs stable federal partnerships that prioritize climate research, data infrastructure and disaster preparedness—not funding cycles that disappear when political winds shift. The state needs insurance markets that can function in a changing climate. And it needs the economic breathing room to recover without sacrificing its people to tourism timelines.
Post Disaster Updates
The flooding’s unprecedented scale caught Hawaii unprepared, and many now worry about what a strong El Niño hurricane season could bring. Honolulu City Councilman Matt Weyer warned in a July 12 essay that neglected flood infrastructure and fractured emergency response systems leave O’ahu unready for a major cyclone. But post disaster management isn’t enough—Hawaii also needs to plan and invest before the next one strikes. Maui County’s roughly $100 million in Kona Low damage wasn’t budgeted, and future disasters likely won’t be either. More than 3,600 residents applied for FEMA assistance, and four months later many are still waiting.
The floods have receded, yet the question remains is whether the systems that failed will be rebuilt stronger, or whether Hawaii will be left to face the next crisis just as vulnerable as it was for this one.
The floodwaters have receded, but the vulnerabilities they exposed remain. Whether Hawaii is better prepared for the next disaster will depend not only on rebuilding roads and bridges, but also on strengthening the systems that underpin resilience. Without that, the next storm will once again find the state vulnerable.
How to Help
If you or your family have been affected by these floods, use this link to get access to help and stay up to date: https://hanamaui.com/kona-low-damage-and-support-info/
Priyal Patel is a member of the inaugural M.S. in Climate Finance cohort at the Columbia Climate School. Prior to her master’s, she spent a year at Hawaiʻi Green Growth, a nonprofit helping Hawaiʻi track its progress on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Columbia Climate School, Earth Institute or Columbia University.
